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Declining Business Dynamism: What We Know and the Way Forward

Ryan A. Decker, John Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin, Javier Miranda

American Economic Review · 2016 · Volume 106 · Issue 5

DOI: 10.1257/aer.p20161050

Abstract

A growing body of evidence indicates that the U.S. economy has become less dynamic in recent years. This trend is evident in declining rates of gross job and worker flows as well as declining rates of entrepreneurship and young firm activity, and the trend is pervasive across industries, regions, and firm size classes. We describe the evidence on these changes in the U.S. economy by reviewing existing research. We then describe new empirical facts about the relationship between establishment-level productivity and employment growth, framing our results in terms of canonical models of firm dynamics and suggesting empirically testable potential explanations.

Keywords

Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis, Labor Demand, Firm Performance: Size, Diversification, and Scope, Entrepreneurship, New Firms, Startups, Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity

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