Winter Is Coming: Robert Gordon and the Future of Economic Growth
American Economic Review · 2016 · Volume 106 · Issue 5
Abstract
This comment assesses the claim of The Rise and Fall of American Growth that for coming decades, growth in US TFP will continue the disappointing pace of the last decade. While predicting future technological advance is difficult, there are indications that Gordon may actually be too optimistic on future TFP growth. The share of output from manufacturing, which still generates the majority of R&D expenditures, and has historically more rapid TFP growth, will continue to fall. There are substantial obstacles to rapid TFP advance in much of the rest of the economy: construction, transport, health care and other services.
Keywords
Macroeconomics: Production, Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics, Industrial Structure, Growth, Fluctuations: U.S., Canada: Pre-1913, Canada: 1913-, Economic History: Transport, Trade, Energy, Technology, and Other Services: U.S., Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes, Empirical Studies of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
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