Shutting Down the Thermohaline Circulation
David Anthoff, Francisco Estrada, Richard S. J. Tol
American Economic Review · 2016 · Volume 106 · Issue 5
Abstract
Past climatic changes were caused by a slowdown of the thermohaline circulation. We use results from experiments with three climate models to show that the expected cooling due to a slowdown of the thermohaline circulation is less in magnitude than the expected warming due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The integrated assessment model FUND and a meta-analysis of climate impacts are used to evaluate the change in human welfare. We find modest but by and large positive effects on human welfare since a slowdown of the thermohaline circulation implies decelerated warming.
Keywords
Climate, Natural Disasters and Their Management, Global Warming
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