Trade and Manufacturing Jobs in Germany
Wolfgang Dauth, Sebastian Findeisen, Jens Suedekum
American Economic Review · 2017 · Volume 107 · Issue 5
Abstract
The German economy exhibits rising service and declining manufacturing employment, but this decline is much sharper in import-competing than export-oriented branches. We first document the individual-level job transitions behind those trends. They are not driven by manufacturing workers who smoothly switch to services. The observed shifts are entirely due to young entrants and returnees from non-employment. We then investigate if rising trade with China and Eastern Europe causally affected those labor flows. Exploiting variation across industries and regions, we find that globalization did not speed up the manufacturing decline in Germany. It even retained those jobs in the economy.
Keywords
Empirical Studies of Trade, Trade and Labor Market Interactions, International Migration, Economic Impacts of Globalization: Labor, Geographic Labor Mobility, Immigrant Workers, Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General
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