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Worker Betas: Five Facts about Systematic Earnings Risk

Fatih Guvenen, Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, Jae Song, Motohiro Yogo

American Economic Review · 2017 · Volume 107 · Issue 5

DOI: 10.1257/aer.p20171094

Abstract

The magnitude of and heterogeneity in systematic earnings risk has important implications for various theories in macro, labor, and financial economics. Using administrative data, we document how the aggregate risk exposure of individual earnings to GDP and stock returns varies across gender, age, the worker's earnings level, and industry. Aggregate risk exposure is U-shaped with respect to the earnings level. In the middle of the earnings distribution, aggregate risk exposure is higher for males, younger workers, and construction and durable manufacturing. At the top of the earnings distribution, aggregate risk exposure is higher for older workers and finance.

Keywords

Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis, Macroeconomics: Production, Economics of Gender, Non-labor Discrimination, Human Capital, Skills, Occupational Choice, Labor Productivity, Wage Level and Structure, Wage Differentials, Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General, Construction

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