Assessing Scenario Probabilities Via Interactive Goal Programming
Cornelis A. De Kluyver, Herbert Moskowitz
Management Science · 1984 · Volume 30 · Issue 3
Abstract
An interactive goal programming approach for assessing scenario probabilities used in long-range forecasting and decision analysis is developed and illustrated using a small numerical example. The method only requires marginal event probability and ordinal or interval first-order conditional probability assessments of a limited number of events constituting the scenarios and guarantees the consistency of the assessments in terms of the laws of probability calculus.
Keywords
probability assessment, interactive goal programming, scenario analysis, decision theory
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