Note—Seasonal Exponential Smoothing with Damped Trends
Everette S. Gardner, Jr., Ed. McKenzie
Management Science · 1989 · Volume 35 · Issue 3
Abstract
In this paper we apply the strategy of trend-damping to the popular Winters exponential smoothing systems for seasonal time series. Efficient model formulations are derived for both multiplicative and additive seasonal patterns. An algorithm is given to test the stability of the models in cases where predetermined smoothing parameters are used. Empirical results are presented to show that trend-damping improves ex ante forecast accuracy in seasonal data, especially at long leadtimes.
Keywords
forecasting: time series
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