Database Models and Managerial Intuition: 50% Model + 50% Manager
Robert C. Blattberg, Stephen J. Hoch
Management Science · 1990 · Volume 36 · Issue 8
Abstract
We focus on ways of combining simple database models with managerial intuition. We present a model and method for isolating managerial intuition. For five different business forecasting situations, our results indicate that a combination of model and manager always outperforms either of these decision inputs in isolation, an average R 2 increase of 0.09 (16%) above the best single decision input in cross-validated model analyses. We assess the validity of an equal weighting heuristic, 50% model + 50% manager, and then discuss why our results might differ from previous research on expert judgment.
Keywords
forecasting, decision making, expertise, decision support systems
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