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Hard and Soft Defense Against a Sequence of Aerial Threats

Michael Atkinson, Moshe Kress

Operations Research · 2025 · Volume 73 · Issue 4

DOI: 10.1287/opre.2024.1025

Abstract

The increasing prevalence of missiles and drones (hereafter referred to as threats) in attacks by both state and nonstate actors highlights the critical need for a robust defense system to counter these threats. We develop a combat model for the engagement between a Blue defender who is subject to repeated attacks by Red threats. The defender employs two types of defenses: hard interceptors, such as antiballistic missiles, and soft measures, such as directed-energy weapons and jamming. Employing strategies for these two types of defensive options are evaluated by a two-dimensional measure of effectiveness: expected number of leaking Red threats and the expected expenditure of hard interceptors. We define efficient frontiers on this two-dimensional space and identify defense strategies that compose these frontiers. Funding: This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program [PE 0605853N/2098]. Supplemental Material: All supplemental materials, including the code, data, and files required to reproduce the results, are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2024.1025 .

Keywords

Security and Defense, firing theory, combat model, salvos, missile defense, soft measures, interceptors

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