A Vulnerability Model for Weapon Sites with Interdependent Elements

Abstract

This paper describes a simple “counting” model, employing overlays and probability-grids, which aids in the determination of the trade-offs, measured in survival probability, between site dispersal and hardening for a weapon complex composed of several interdependent elements, separated by distances of less than two lethal radii. The survival-probability expressions are obtained through the use of Markov chains. An example of vulnerability estimation by the use of the model is discussed and referenced.