The Strange Journey of Monetary Indicators

Abstract

For as long as governments have intervened in economic affairs, private decision makers have searched for signs and indicators of ongoing or impending government actions. A century ago, anxious British bankers relied on changes in the bank rate to provide them with information on the intent of the Bank of England. Contemporary decision makers not only analyze changes in policy-tools monetary, fiscal, or debt policy actions—but they carefully scrutinize the words of ever more talkative economic policy makers. The State Department's legendary crew of “China watchers” could not analyze pronouncements by Chairman Mao any more carefully than money market bankers and security dealers analyze an economic report of the President or a speech by the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve.