The Market Prefers Republicans: Myth or Reality

Abstract

Wall Street abounds with folklore concerning aggregate stock price movements before and after Presidential elections. Some suggest that movements in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) portend the outcome of elections. Others attribute movements in the market, prior to and after the election, to the anticipated outcome of the election. In this paper we examine some of the folklore with respect to the effect of Presidential elections on aggregate stock price movements and the implication of these movements on market efficiency.