Do Real Options Lead to Escalation of Commitment?

Abstract

I examine the concern that unconstrained real options can lead to escalation of commitment and identify contexts in which escalation of commitment is likely. I argue that these situations fall primarily outside the realm of unregulated for-profit organizations and also that the predictions of agency and attribution theories counter the predictions of the escalation of commitment framework. Finally, I assert that optimality requires flexibility in the timing of the exercise of real options when returns on investment are volatile.