Product Launches with New Attributes: A Hybrid Conjoint–Consumer Panel Technique for Estimating Demand
Paul B. Ellickson, Mitchell J. Lovett, Bhoomija Ranjan
Journal of Marketing Research · 2019 · Volume 56 · Issue 5
Abstract
The authors propose and empirically evaluate a new hybrid estimation approach that integrates choice-based conjoint with repeated purchase data for a dense consumer panel, and they show that it increases the accuracy of conjoint predictions for actual purchases observed months later. The key innovation lies in combining conjoint data with a long and detailed panel of actual choices for a random sample of the target population. By linking the actual purchase and conjoint data, researchers can estimate preferences for attributes not yet present in the marketplace, while also addressing many of the key limitations of conjoint analysis, including sample selection and contextual differences. Counterfactual product and pricing exercises illustrate the managerial relevance of the approach.
Keywords
Bayesian hierarchical models, choice models, conjoint, data fusion, predictive validity, revealed preference, stated preference
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