Long-Run Abstinence After Narcotics Abuse: What Are the Odds?
Marnik G. Dekimpe, Linda M. Van de Gucht, Dominique M. Hanssens, Keiko I. Powers
Management Science · 1998 · Volume 44 · Issue 11
Abstract
We consider the long-run odds that narcotics users remain abstinent after methadone treatment. A flexible split-hazard specification that allows for individual-level differences in both the long-run probability of eventual relapse and the short-run timing of relapse is developed. The model is applied to a comprehensive data set involving individual drug abuse and treatment histories for over 800 addicts. Our findings indicate (1) that the short-run success of methadone programs does not automatically translate into long-run abstinence, which suggests the need for aftercare, (2) the value of preventing a teenager or young adult from initiating, and (3) the possibility of identifying high-risk groups, both in terms of age of first daily use and in terms of ethnicity.
Keywords
Hazard Modeling, Survival Analysis, Narcotics Abuse, Methadone Treatment, Public Policy
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